jueves, 26 de febrero de 2009

Server sales: If you're falling, dont' fall so hard

And I thought I wasn't going to post anything today.

I just saw the article of ServerWatch on server sales on Q4'2008. I had been waiting for it for a while to see how bad the quarter had been given the economy.. but mostly I wanted to see how the GNU/Linux vs Windows battle on the server space is going.

For Q2 2008 (the IT sector not in decline yet): Windows had a YoY gain of revenue of 1.38% (with market share down to 36.5% from 38.2 one year earlier), UNIX gained 8.22% (market share up to 32.7% from 32.06%) and GNU/Linux had a revenue gain of 4.55% (market share down to 13.4% from 13.6%). GNU/Linux + UNIX make up 46.1% of revenue market share.

For Q3 2008: Windows had a loss of revenue of 2.86% (reaching 40.8% from 40.4%), UNIX lost -8.15% (ouch!.. down to 29.7% from 31.1%) and GNU/Linux barely made it even with a gain of 0.49% (reaching 14% from 13.4%) . GNU/Linux + UNIX held 43.7% of the market.

Q4 was a poem (if you ask me... I doubt Steve Ballmer will agree): Windows nosedived with a loss of 17.07% (double ouch!!... down to 35.3% of the market from 36.6%), GNU/Linux had a loss of 7.92% (reaching 13.6% from 12.7%) and UNIX lost 6.52% (reaching 36.2% from 33.3%). GNU/Linux + UNIX got 49.8% of the market.

The numbers and percentages can be a little misleading... so let me try to mislead you a little more: If you look at the amounts of gross losses/gains of revenue, for example, you will see that in Q2 2008, Windows had an increase of YoY revenue of roughly US$ 70 million, GNU/Linux made a little more with 80 million (it's hard to know cause the numbers are rounded, so perhaps the difference could have been a little less or more) but UNIX had an increase of 350 millions (wow!). Q3 is another story: Windows had a decrease of revenue of 150 million, GNU/Linux broke even and UNIX had a decrease of 330 million. And Q4... well, this is not for the faint of heart: Windows had a YoY decrease of revenue of..... 980 million, GNU/Linux had a decrease of 150 million and UNIX had a decrease of 340 million.

Bottom line: If on good times you are growing well, and on bad times you are shrinking less than your enemy... I think you aren't doing so bad after all, don't you think?

The second bottom line: These are statistics and we know that they can say whatever we want them to say.... so take those numbers with a grain of salt.

Disclaimer: The numbers, though I guess are right, could be wrong. I had to put together numbers from different sources (mostly IDC and Gartner) so that there could be a mistake here or there (though I wouldn't expect it to be so dramatic). Want to get the file I have with the numbers? Let me know and I'll email it to you.. perhaps we could improve it.

2 comentarios:

  1. The next question is - how relevant is really the ammount of money spent? Market share expressed as "revenue" does not say anything about how many units are running one system or another. I assume that MS and UNIX systems in general are more expensive than GNU/Linux systems, so I suppose we should expect a steady decline in revenue in the UNIX post (as far as I have understood, most migrations go from UNIX to either Linux or MS and the two systems are very seldomly in direct competition).
    The question is if they should even be seen as "one market".

  2. Revenue != Units sold. That's righht... and that's why it's very difficult to figure out how the market is really going. I guess looking at _trends_ is the best approach. Of course, revenue is significant too. I bet Steve Ballmer would like to have kept the same amount of revenue for Q4 in 2007 and 2008 instead of the (almost) 1 billion decrease.